Energy & Utilities
The wind energy boom
Steve Sawyer | October 29th 2012 | @EG_Energy
Wind power plays a central role in an increasing number of countries’ immediate and longer term energy plans. After 15 years of average cumulative growth rates of about 28%, global commercial wind power installations in about 80 countries at the end of last year averaged 240 gigawatts (GW). They are expected to reach 280 GW by the end of 2012, providing 2.5% of global electricity supply and saving approximately 400 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions. Mid-line projections have the industry supplying 8% of global electricity supply in 2020, saving over 1.1 billion tons of CO2 annually, and depending on the pace of economic growth and new emission reduction targets, it could well top 10 or even 12% of global electricity supply by the end of the decade.
China is now firmly established as the world’s leading market, installing nearly 18 GW in 2011 to bring its total capacity to over 62 GW, and the government has ambitious targets for the future. The United States is the world’s second biggest market, and is expected to have a banner year in 2012, though with a precipitous drop off in 2013 due to highly politicised energy policy. India and Brazil are the two fastest growing markets globally. In fact, in both 2010 and 2011, the majority of installations worldwide were outside the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), driven both by clear policies and growing electricity demand.
Wind industry is a central part of the European Union’s strategy to reach 20% of final energy consumption from renewable energy by 2020, and a central part of its emissions reduction strategy. Already providing over 6% of the EU’s electricity, this number is set to more than double by the end of the decade. However, the recent upheaval within both the commercial banking sector and the eurozone have slowed its progress in southern Europe.
Due to both technology improvements and market forces, wind equipment costs have come down significantly in the past few years. This is making wind farms cost-competitive and allowing them to compete for market share against subsidised incumbents. Offshore wind is, in development terms, where onshore wind was 15 years ago – as it scales up, costs will come down.
The growth of wind power is taking place against the backdrop of a highly publicised and often politicised debate about support for clean energy technologies in the absence of an effective price on carbon, air pollution, water pollution or fresh water consumption – these total about 60 billion USD per year globally, about half of which goes to renewable electricity technologies. In comparison, politicians seem reticent to scale back on the 600 billion USD subsidies (according to the International Energy Agency) that are expected to go to fossil fuels in 2012.
Wind power is a central player in our energy future. Whether it will supply 15, 20, or 30% or more of our electricity by 2050 will depend on a complex set of forces.
This post is part of a series for the Global Energy Conversation, supported by Shell. For more information, visit the Global Energy Conversation website
Comments
We support you
11:59 October 30th 2012
Despite the global crisis, the willing to wipe out the force of wind power generation, I really think that wind energy is the new era and, like the age of the first computers, this cannot been stopped out.
The today strike out of Hurricane Sandy's shows that global warming must be immediately stopped by all green technologies. If you have the time to read the next future weather forecast of the IPCC you will immediately understand why.
Let's save our future before it will be too late.
Claudio
Energy and wind energy
19:19 November 2nd 2012
I found very interesting the articles about wind energy and the building of energy efficient buildings. Those things must go together. Sources of energy like water, wind or the rays of the sun, I think, lie in the future if we promote the right policies.
They have to be made profitable. As now the burning of fossil fuels is more than profitable because of current legislation and governmental subsidies.
An effort must be made, I think, in developing policies that have a perspective of several decades and not just the balance sheet of the end of the year. Fossil fuels are favoured by legislation and subsidies. Alternative sources, I think, should have the advantages.
Free markets rely on current legislation. The judiciary and, even, the police. For not speaking of the armed forces displayed all along the world.
In sum, government policies, I think should change their policies from protecting de fossil fuels market to promote innovation and economical, clean and efficient energy solutions.
Regards
Wind or Hot Air?
04:31 November 3rd 2012
It's always interesting to read a lobbyists version of the current situation. For a contrast, I suggest readers consider this from Forbes magazine. It paints a much less attractive picture of what it calls " an over-subsidized industry that depends wholly on taxpayer dollars to remain solvent" -- see http://www.forbes.com/2011/07/19/wind-energy-carbon.html
Industrial Wind Power
13:51 November 4th 2012
The slowdown of Industrial Wind Turbine growth in Europe is due to the fact that early adopting countries are now understanding that it is an economic boondoggle. Add to this the fact that wind power (in its present format) cannot operate without constant back up, its desecration of the landscape, health effects on all living things, poor power quality output (harmonics/dirty power) and property value erosion, and you have to conclude that the wind power industry needs to come up with better technology to mitigate these problems.
At this point wind is not even a contender. The industry should embrace newer designs that eliminate the problems and can produce competitively priced power. Those designs are now available and if the wind industry wants to stay at the party, they need to take immediate action to offer these new designs and bury the old monstrosities before they completely miss the renewables 'boat'.
Long term pricing
13:18 November 8th 2012
I disagree that it is a boondoggle.
I think the towers are beautiful, and would gladly have one on the back end of my farm. Here, the property value erosion is more fanciful that actual. I cannot find documented cases of more than temporary (1-2 years) dips in value.
The key issue is appropriate use. Since the wind doesn't blow all the time, ultimately the price of wind has to be lower than the marginal cost of the most expensive full time alternative. This is starting to happen where the alternative is natural gas turbines.
The long term solution is to have LOTS of wind, and an alternate use for the extra energy. One promising solution is to use excess electricity to make hydrogen from water, then use the hydrogen to make methanol. This is a liquid fuel that is compatible with existing gasoline engines with relatively inexpensive modifications. The electrolysis process can be turned on and off in fractions of a second.
The wind energy boom
15:56 November 4th 2012
The key advantage of wind energy over solar power is its independence relative to summer or winter as well as night and day. Placing large mills offshore is a logical outcome of vested interests, as well as the place where they are at their best. It will be a winner once the technological challenges are overcome and cost comes down.
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